The Limits of Prediction
It's often claimed that our statistical methods allow us to predict what will happen. Yet when it comes to the significant events of our life in terms of opportunities they never are.
The careers we have, the events of how and we meet significant people are never predicted accurately. It may well be that our mood, our psyche at certain times and our filters are subject to our psychological health whether good or otherwise. I am not arguing for a new age attitude I am simply reflecting that we may spot possibilities, read communication abd interpret the desires and thoughts of others more accurately at particular times and in particular situations. So there is no certainty but merely opportunity. It may be that the New Age or religious attitude that there is a plan for you is an interpretation of events allowing the individual to spot an apportunity because they so believe.
All interpretations are a matter of faith. And each one is continually modified and adjusted across time. Our political analysis, our paradigms are metaphors of meaning. As a Marxist I see a model that works, as a Jungian Psychotherapist I look to an ever becoming realisation of themselves within my clients. As Rosa Luxembourg commented " those who do not move do not they are in chains" As a philosopher I am a Hegelian continually looking for thesis, antithesis and synthesis. This is a model to and may predict in different ways and with different effectiveness across time. With this model of dialectical change the problem is identifying the very forces of thesis and antithesis and therefore a perspective of synthesis becomes problematic. As a neo Pagan I use the metaphor of archetype as a means of interpretation . Yet to many my denial of an absolute rationality or scientific approach will be horrifying. But simply stating that the way we look at the world will simply be paradigms that will have a greater or lesser validity and use in the situation that we apply it. Science describes much of the world very well but not all. Often we see similarities between the faith of the atheist and the believer each of whom often fail to recognise that each of them take a leap of faith rather than admit that an agnostic attitude is the only defensible position really that can hold. We cannot know everything we can just simply discover an ever widening perspective of data and observations
Even statistical significance whilst having internal validity is subject to cultural interpretation. Significance tests arose out of and was influenced by the assumptions of eugenics. Complex mathematics can arise within astrology, integration and differentiation and also within an absolute economic calculus that depends upon particular paradigms. Much of economic theory does not adequately explain or describe how markets work over time. The assumption that economic decision are rational are clearly false.
As it is the experience of the European referendum in the UK and the election of Trump in 2016 showed how poor predictive statistics are. Any predictive tool was have to be endlessly looking for data that could be read and would assume that our limitations would allow us to endlessly adapt by the micro unit of time. During rapid social change and technological developments we may not see or be aware of the process. We can approximate to a certain degree of accuracy but no more and as time moves on if our model remains fixed it becomes of less value and validity. Science exists within society and is shaped by it. Even the use and interpretation of words are subject to change and folk beliefs and interpretations grow in the same way. Conspiracy theories are suhject to cultural influences and the language of quantum theory is reinterpreted by the new agers. Often many are unaware of the links between the far right and attitudes to vaccination and pandemic. It's very hard to understand how an individual fits into the collective and to act accordingly. I have noticed though that those who consider themselves lucky are more likely to spot opportunities and situations, to take risks and interpret the responses accordingly. Those who feel unlucky or cursed may simply fail to act on opportunities. All is a matter of faith allied with a width of vision and sheer cheek. Fate is signified not sealed and change often happens through paradox and possibility..Enjoy your day.....perhaps I am just a shaman creating other faiths often I just don't know..
