Earthquakes and Astrology: Science Meets Ancient Beliefs
When the earth shook beneath Turkey and Syria in February 2023, killing over 50,000 people, millions noticed something peculiar: a Dutch man named Frank Hoogerbeets had tweeted a warning days earlier about a potential magnitude 7.5 earthquake in the region. Was this remarkable foresight, pure coincidence, or something more controversial?
For centuries, humans have sought patterns in the stars to predict earthly catastrophes. From Aristotle's observations linking eclipses to seismic events to modern astrologers claiming planetary alignments trigger tremors, the relationship between cosmic movements and geological disasters remains one of the most contentious topics bridging ancient wisdom and modern science.
Yet what does the evidence actually reveal?
The Ancient Quest for Earthquake Prediction
Since at least 373 BC, when Greek historians recorded animals fleeing their homes before a devastating earthquake, humans have searched for reliable warning signs of impending seismic disasters. Aristotle noted in his Meteorology that there seemed to be a coincidental link between eclipses and earthquakes—a correlation that gradually transformed into claimed causation.
The eminent French seismologist Alexis Perrey spent decades in the 19th century searching for connections between earthquakes and lunar phases. Even Scientific American published articles on his work in 1855, reflecting the scientific community's genuine interest in celestial earthquake triggers.
"Logically there must be a connection between tides and earthquakes," explains John Vidale, a seismologist at the University of Washington. "Tides stress faults and earthquakes occur when the stress is sufficient."
What Modern Science Actually Shows
Contemporary research has revealed something fascinating: tidal forces do influence seismic activity, but not in the dramatic ways astrologers claim.
Recent studies examining earthquake patterns in Greece found that tremors were around 15% more likely to strike when the gravitational pull of the sun was strongest, compared to its weakest periods. The research, published in geological journals, demonstrates a genuine but modest correlation between certain tidal forces and earthquake timing.
The 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan provided particularly compelling evidence. Scientists discovered that in the years leading up to the magnitude 9.0 disaster, smaller tremors clustered around times of peak tidal stress. The correlation could derive from the earthquake's oceanic epicentre, where seawater movement might have magnified minute gravitational forces.
However, Elizabeth Cochran, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey, emphasises that "the largest impact of tides on earthquakes is in oceanic regions, where ocean tides can in some locations impart a large force on shallow faults." This effect weakens dramatically away from water.
The Limits of Gravitational Influence
The Moon's gravitational pull at lunar perigee isn't different enough from other times to significantly change earthquake likelihood. Earth tides—the solid planet's response to gravitational forces—produce stresses of roughly 4 kilopascals, considerably less than typical tectonic plate motions.
Think of it this way: if the Moon's gravity were powerful enough to trigger major earthquakes, we'd expect to see clear patterns correlating with lunar cycles. Several comprehensive studies have searched for such correlations over the past century, with mixed results at best.
The British Geological Survey concludes: "A link between increases in earthquake activity and tidal maxima has not been clearly demonstrated" despite over 100 years of investigation.
The Astrological Claims
Modern earthquake astrologers claim far more dramatic predictive powers. Some practitioners at firms like Wilfred Hazelwood analyse planetary alignments, eclipse patterns, and complex astrological charts to forecast seismic events.
Contemporary astrological theory suggests several mechanisms:
Planetary Alignments: When multiple planets cluster in particular zodiac signs, astrologers claim this creates stress fields affecting Earth's crust. Some point to periods when Saturn, Mars, Mercury, and Rahu form close conjunctions as particularly dangerous.
Eclipse Effects: Solar and lunar eclipses are considered times of maximum stress, especially when occurring near sunrise, sunset, midnight, or midday. Ancient texts describe these as "sensitive points" where geological catastrophes become more likely.
Lunar Mansion Theory: Vedic astrology divides the Moon's journey into 27 nakshatras or lunar mansions, with certain positions supposedly triggering seismic activity.
Astrologer Anil Aggarwala claims that "55.80% of earthquakes have occurred during the period covering five tithis—two tithis preceding new moon or full moon." He's built elaborate prediction systems based on planetary positions and eclipse timing.
The Scientific Verdict
The U.S. Geological Survey is unequivocal: "Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future."
For a genuine earthquake prediction, scientists require three specific elements: precise date and time, exact location, and magnitude. Most astrological predictions fail these criteria spectacularly.
When astrologer Frank Hoogerbeets warned of a "~M 7.5 earthquake" hitting "sooner or later" in the Turkey-Syria region, his vague timing fell well short of scientific standards. Susan Hough, a USGS seismologist, describes such claims as "scattershot statements and predictions."
"It's the stopped clock that's right twice a day, basically," she explains.
Recent cases underscore the problems with astrological earthquake prediction. In 2025, Myanmar authorities arrested 21-year-old TikTok astrologer John Moe The after his prediction of a "very strong" earthquake caused public panic, with residents camping outdoors rather than staying in their homes.
Where Real Earthquake Science Stands
Genuine earthquake prediction remains one of geology's greatest challenges. In the 1970s, scientists were optimistic that practical prediction methods would soon emerge, but decades of research have proved earthquingly humble.
The most famous claimed success—the 1975 Haicheng earthquake in China—has since been questioned by researchers who found no valid short-term prediction actually occurred. Most "successful" predictions prove to be retrofitted claims made after the fact.
Scientists can calculate probabilities that significant earthquakes will occur in specific regions over certain timeframes, much like weather forecasting. They can also provide early warning systems that detect P-waves and give seconds of advance notice before more damaging S-waves arrive.
But pinpointing when and where the next "Big One" will strike? That capability remains stubbornly beyond our reach.
The Human Element
What makes earthquake astrology persistently appealing isn't just human nature's pattern-seeking tendencies—it's the very real trauma and helplessness people feel facing unpredictable geological forces.
After major earthquakes, communities desperately search for meaning and control. If planetary positions could somehow explain or predict these catastrophes, it would restore a sense of cosmic order to chaotic events.
This psychological need explains why earthquake predictions spread rapidly on social media, despite their scientific invalidity. The 2023 Turkey-Syria tragedy killed tens of thousands; naturally, people wanted to believe someone could have warned them.
The Verdict
Modern science has found genuine but modest connections between tidal forces and earthquake timing in specific oceanic regions. These represent fascinating discoveries about Earth's complex systems, not validation of traditional astrological claims.
The gravitational effects are real but tiny compared to the massive tectonic forces that actually cause earthquakes. More importantly, even where tidal triggering occurs, it affects the timing of earthquakes that were already primed to happen—not their fundamental occurrence.
Comprehensive statistical analyses consistently fail to support astrological earthquake prediction methods. When apparent successes occur, they typically result from either coincidence, vague predictions that could fit many scenarios, or cherry-picked data that ignores numerous failed forecasts.
As our understanding of Earth's geological processes grows more sophisticated, the gulf between astrological claims and seismic reality becomes increasingly apparent. While the search for earthquake precursors continues through legitimate scientific channels—monitoring groundwater, animal behaviour, and electromagnetic signals—astrology's track record remains stubbornly unconvincing.
Perhaps the most honest approach acknowledges both our scientific limitations and psychological needs: we cannot yet predict earthquakes reliably, whether through seismology or star charts, but we can prepare for them through better building codes, emergency planning, and geological monitoring.
The earth keeps its secrets, planetary alignments notwithstanding.
